"climate train: summary of the kyoto protocol "

Summary of the Kyoto protocol

The table shows emissions reductions for each country

Country	change from 1990
All European countries except those listed below	-8 %
USA	-7 %
Canada, Japan, Hungary, Poland	-6 %
Croatia	-5 %
Russian Federation, Ukraine, New Zealand	0
Norway	+1 %
Australia	+8 %
Iceland	+10 %
"Annex 1" total	-5 %
Other countries	no target

The numbers show the percentage change from 1990 levels.
These targets apply to the average emissions for each country during the five year period 2008-2012.
The eastern European countries and Russia can choose a different baseline year if they wish.
The targets apply to a basket of six greenhouse gases - CO₂, N2O, CH4, SF6, HFCs, PFCs which will be added together using Global Warming Potentials.
Countries may choose whether to include enhanced sinks of greenhouse gases due to land use changes (agriculture, reforestation)
Countries listed in the table may trade emissions quotas with each other, but not with countries without targets
Countries may gain credit for emissions reductions due to projects which they financed in other countries through the "Clean Development Mechanism" (=Joint Implementation).
The details of the trading mechanism and accounting of sinks will be agreed at COP4 in Buenos Aires.

Some points to note

There is no underlying principle behind the various targets, which are only a result of political bargaining

Russia has a target of 100% of the 1990 level wheras its current emissions are 20% lower than they were in 1990. Therefore it is likely that there will be a large surplus will be traded with the US etc.

To illustrate this problem and the inequity of the agreed targets, see the table below. The figures for 2012 are based on the 1990 emissions, the Kyoto targets above, and projected populations. For countries with no target a simple extrapolation was made. CO₂ Data from CDIAC & IEA, popn data from UN.

CO₂ emissions per capita per year in tonnes (=10⁶ g) CO₂ (for tonnes Carbon multiply by 12 / 44)
Year	1985	1990	1992	1995	2012	population change 1995-2012
Russia	n.a.	14.9	13.26	10.44	15.5	-3.6%
USA	19.43	19.64	19.42	19.88	14.6	+21%
European Union	8.78	8.83	8.65	8.55	7.5	+8.7%
China	1.78	2.09	2.16	2.51	5.0	+22%
India	0.56	0.71	0.77	0.86	1.6	+43%
World	4.05	4.08	3.98	3.92	4.5	+36%
needed to stabilise atmospheric CO₂ concentration at 1990 levels		1.45			1.1

Credits from "enhancement of sinks" or projects carried out under the "Clean Development Mechanism" will have to be calculated based on hypothetical "might have been" scenarios which will be very hard to verify.

Most scientists said in Kyoto that we are not yet able to measure CH4 and N2O emissions or changes in sinks of greenhouse gases due to land use changes accurately, and we have even less reliable data in 1990, but these are all to be included in the 1990 baseline.

Emissions from international air transport and marine transport (bunker fuels) are not included

The emissions from developing countries are not controlled at all but in total they are soon projected to become larger than emissions from the countries listed above. Until there are "meaningful commitments" from developing countries, the US Senate is unlikely to ratify the protocol.

Bert Bolin (former chair Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) calculated that the effect of this protocol would be to lower the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere in the year 2010 by just 0.4% from 383.5 to 382 ppm.

There is not one sentence in the protocol which even mentions the long-term aims, i.e. the maximum future concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere or the maximum global temperature rise which would avoid "dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system" (article 2 of the UNFCCC). Surely this should be the starting point of the negotiations?

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